The latest update to the Brookings-Financial Times TIGER (Tracking Indices for the Global Economic Recovery) Index reveals a world economy with sharp divergences in growth prospects between the advanced economies and emerging markets, and within these groups as well.
Eswar Prasad and myself update TIGER twice a year, around the times of the IMF-World Bank Meetings of finance ministers, central bank governors, economists and policymakers. TIGER is a set of indices that track the speed of economic activity across the world’s major emerging markets and advanced economies using macroeconomic, financial and confidence indicators.
The October 2015 update to TIGER can be viewed interactively at Brookings. Simply click on a country to see how its economy has been broadly performing. Below the map, you can view how each indicator has behaved across the emerging markets group and the advanced economy group (e.g. export growth across emerging markets as a group).
The accompanying article by Eswar Prasad and myself can be read at the Financial Times or at Brookings.
Here are some highlights:
- The U.S. economy continues to strengthen with domestic demand picking up momentum. Despite a falling unemployment rate, wage pressures remain muted.
- The euro zone and Japan face a difficult combination of weak growth, near-deflationary price changes, and the absence of fundamental reforms needed to revive domestic demand.
- Emerging market economies are now leading the world economy into a slump. Growth has fallen, business and consumer confidence are eroding, and financial markets have taken a beating.
- Among the major emerging markets, India alone continues to maintain strong GDP growth.
- There is a set of emerging markets experiencing a complex set of problems—stalled growth, high inflation, and falling currencies—stemming from macroeconomic mismanagement.
- The impotence of monetary policy in boosting growth and staving off deflationary pressures has become painfully apparent.
- The policy prescriptions for most economies remain much the same as in years past—a more balanced set of macroeconomic policies, accompanied by deep-rooted structural reforms.